NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Bill Belichick's reign over the NFL is officially no more as Patriots hit rock bottom

“We’re on NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerto Las Vegas.”

Bill Belichick didn’t actually reference his next opponent in so many words Sunday afternoon following his latest embarrassing defeat. In fact, his new theme seems to be “starting over,” a concept he referenced multiple times after his New England Patriots were whitewashed 34-0 at Gillette Stadium by the New Orleans Saints. Regardless, Belichick will be far from the first person who sets course for Sin City looking to literally and/or figuratively change his failing fortunes.

And maybe that’s all we’re seeing here, Lady Luck making an attempt at balancing the scales of football fortuity. After all, Belichick drafted a player with the 199th pick of the 2000 draft who went on to become the greatest quarterback in football history. BB and his fated star, Tom Brady, were on the right side of the “Tuck Rule,” which – had it gone the other way – might have sunk the Patriots dynasty before it was ever launched. Through the years, a flaccid AFC East, Russell Wilson, the Atlanta Falcons and an overtime coin toss at Arrowhead Stadium all played their parts in perpetuating the “Patriot Way.”

OK, let’s not get this overly twisted. Belichick, TB12, Pats owner Robert Kraft and many others coalesced to create the longest-running era of dominance in NFL history. They made plenty of their own luck over the years with near-ceaseless preparation, ruthless roster and salary-cap management, mastery of the rulebook – while, infamously, pushing beyond it – and so, so many clutch performances.

But now into their fourth season post-Brady, the Patriots’ eminence seems increasingly about their legendary quarterback, who went on to win his seventh Lombardi Trophy with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and less about their once-unassailable coach.

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No galactic emperor can rule forever, and Sunday was further evidence that Belichick’s reign is long over – the Saints’ walkover coming seven days after the Dallas Cowboys ripped New England 38-3, Belichick’s worst-ever loss as a head coach.

“Just plain and simply, we've got to find a way to play and coach better than that,” he lamented Sunday. “So that’s what we are going to do, start all over and get back on a better track than we're on right now.”

However we’re not rubbernecking a fresh mishap here. If you’ve been paying attention, the Patriots have been derailed since Brady bolted for Tampa in 2020. Consider that since then:

• New England hasn't won a playoff game.
• In the Patriots’ only post-Brady postseason appearance, they were trampled 47-17 by the Buffalo Bills in the 2021 wild-card round.
• A franchise that won the AFC East 17 times in the 18 seasons Brady was their primary quarterback has not ruled it since.
• The Patriots are 26-30 overall after being lashed by the Saints.

And now? Last-place New England is 1-4 for the first time since 2000, Belichick's first season in Foxborough. Outscored 72-3 the past two weeks, the Patriots are averaging 11 points per game and haven't exceeded 20 nor scored a touchdown in their past 34 drives.

And so many of Belichick’s recent decisions bear scrutiny.

He chose Cam Newton as Brady’s successor even though the 2015 MVP’s style and skill set were polar opposites to his predecessor and, unsurprisingly, proved poor fits for a culture and scheme that had evolved around TB12’s accuracy, decision-making and ability to sustain drives. A year later, Mac Jones was drafted in Round 1, supplanted Newton and played pretty well as a rookie. Yet Jones’ regression began last year, when Belichick didn’t bother to put a bona fide offensive assistant on his staff after losing longtime coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Raiders. And then there’s Belichick’s spotty history as a talent evaluator – particularly when it comes to the NFL draft – a shortcoming Brady had long plastered over, but one that’s now being laid bare on what’s become a non-competitive roster.

Just a win shy of his 300th regular-season victory, Belichick is, arguably, the greatest coach in NFL history. But that qualifier was rarely used a few years ago after he’d apparently surpassed – or seemed destined to – the likes of Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, George Halas, Tom Landry, Bill Walsh and others. Belichick needs 18 wins, regular-season or otherwise, to eclipse Shula’s all-time record of 347. Yet it’s increasingly worth wondering how long it will take him to scale that summit, or – gasp – if he’ll even get it done in New England amid once-foreign speculation about his job security.

It even appeared Belichick had begun feeling some heat at this year’s annual league meeting in March, when he broke from his perpetually forward-facing philosophy after being asked why Patriots fans should be optimistic going into the 2023 season.

"The last 25 years,” was Belichick’s response, a comment he later walked back – but not before being criticized, even by former New England defensive captain Tedy Bruschi.

The Patriots next head to Sin City to face McDaniels’ Raiders in what could be a get-right game, though Belichick and Co. collapsed in Las Vegas last season thanks to Jakobi Meyers’ complete lack of situational awareness – once a New England staple – in a last-second 30-24 meltdown, the former receiver’s ill-considered lateral returned for a game-winning touchdown on the final play.

A microcosm of Belichick’s … last four years, which continue to come up snake eyes. Makes you wonder if he’ll have to start over somewhere else himself.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.